How Erdogan Moved to Solidify Power by Ousting a Pivotal Ally

The ouster of Mr. Davutoglu offered another vivid example of Mr. Erdogan's autocratic style and his mastery of power politics that Turks this week likened to characters from "The Godfather" or "House of Cards."

Mr. Erdogan is often compared to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia for his authoritarian style and his ability to keep winning elections while eroding the quality of Turkey's democratic institutions. Mr. Erdogan burnished that image when he switched from prime minister to president, something Mr. Putin had done to preserve his political supremacy.

Mr. Davutoglu, long seen as subservient to Mr. Erdogan, was often compared to Dmitri A. Medvedev, Mr. Putin's loyal deput y. But Mr. Medvedev has stuck around and Mr. Davutoglu is out.

"Mr. Erdogan doesn't even want someone like Davutoglu, who was pretty much singing his tune, with some nuances," said Suat Kiniklioglu, a former lawmaker with the A.K.P. and the chairman of the Center For Strategic Communication in Ankara. "Step by step, he's making sure his political objective, which is the presidential system, is achieved."

The resignation of Mr. Davutoglu follows one of his greatest successes as prime minister: a deal with the European Union to stem the flow of refugees from Turkey to the Continent.

Mr. Davutoglu, not Mr. Erdogan, was front and center in those negotiations, and the international attention he received angered Mr. Erdogan, analysts said. Mr. Davutoglu also sought a meeting with President Obama, according to Turkish news media reports, and though the meeting did not transpire, the analysts said it nevertheless raised the ire of Mr. Erdogan.

"Erdogan has been deeply suspicious of Davutoglu's attempts to gain international credibility through his dealings with the European Union and attempts to meet with Obama," said Aykan Erdemir, a former opposition lawmaker with Turkey's main secular party who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Photo Ahmet Davutoglu, left, served as Turkey's foreign minister in 2014 for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, who was prime minister at the time. Mr. Erdogan later ascended to the presidency and Mr. Davutoglu became prime minister. Credit Umit Bektas/Reuters

As part of the refugee deal, the European Union agreed to visa-free travel for Turks to parts of Europe and to speed up Turkey's long-stalled negotiations to join the bloc. With Mr. Davutoglu out, that process is further in doubt.

In public, Mr. Davutoglu has largely been deferential to Mr. Erdogan. "He was praising him and glorifying him," said Mr. Kiniklioglu, the former lawmaker.

But Mr. Davutoglu was known to be less enthusiastic than Mr. Erdogan in pushing for a presidential system, something that would have eliminated any remaining authority in the office of prime minister, which under Turkey's Constitution is the most powerful position.

"There is no major ideological divide between the two," said Omer Taspinar, an expert on Turkey at the Brookings Institution. "It's a power struggle, with Erdogan pushing for total loyalty and full support for his presidential agenda and Davutoglu showing slight resistance in order to keep checks and balances to protect his role as prime minister."

While his public comments indicated little distance between him and Mr. Erdogan, there were signs lately that Mr. Davutoglu was trying to assert himself and, at least modestly, challenge Mr. Erdogan's authority.

"The basic problem is that Erdogan seeks to eliminate anyone in the party who has any ambitions of authority of their own," said Svante E. Cornell, a Turkey analyst with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, a research organization.

The split between Turkey's top two political leaders added another element of turmoil at a time when the country is facing numerous challenges: a war in the southeast against Kurdish militants; spillover from the war in Syria, with cross-border shelling; and the arrival of millions of refugees.

Mr. Davutoglu had been the chief architect of Turkey's Syria policy, which is widely viewed as a failure.

For years, Turkey allowed its southern border with Syria to be an easy conduit for weapons and fighters, a policy criticized by the United States and other allies for allowing the rise of the Islamic State. The refugee crisis shows no signs of abating, and Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, remains firmly in power, backed by Russia and Iran.

Analysts say Mr. Davutoglu will most likely be cast as the scapegoat for Turkey's Syria policy by Mr. Erdogan and his inner circle.

The country also endured a period of political instability last year, after the A.K.P. lost its parliamentary majority before regaining control in a snap election. During this period, Turkish stocks fell and the Turkish lira lost value against the do llar, reflecting investors' concerns about Mr. Erdogan's unchecked power.

Mr. Kiniklioglu said that Mr. Davutoglu's assertiveness on international issues very likely raised concerns among Mr. Erdogan and his inner circle that the prime minister was slowly trying to exercise his own authority.

Referring to Mr. Erdogan, Mr. Kiniklioglu said, "He just wants someone who sits quietly in Ankara until the executive presidency is in place."

Mr. Davutoglu said he would step aside after a special party congress to choose a new leader to be held on May 22.

Mr. Erdogan, who as president is supposed to be above party politics, is expected to help choose a successor to his former acolyte who will be subservient and lead his effort to rewrite the Constitution and establish a presidential system. That would most likely require new elections for the A.K.P. to gain more seats in Parliament to approve any constitutional changes.

Mr. Davutoglu, a bookish and professorial counterweight to the brash and abrasive Mr. Erdogan, agreed in 2014 to be prime minister when Mr. Erdogan was elected president. Other top A.K.P. officials had demurred, fearing that they would have no authority under Mr. Erdogan.

Analysts say Mr. Erdogan, given his power and his vast populari ty among Turkey's pious masses, is unlikely to face much political cost in removing Mr. Davutoglu.

Continue reading the main story
Source: How Erdogan Moved to Solidify Power by Ousting a Pivotal Ally